Taleb – you didn’t speak well of it, but you did the same without acknowledging it

I actually believe a lot of what Taleb talks about. But there’s an interesting aspect to the position he holds about the world.

In one of his previous books (it doesn’t really matter which one, but if you’re really anal and wanna fight ‘boot it, I’ll find it), he states that one of the ways that you can be a ‘not-wrong predictor’ is by predicting that something will eventually happen but just hasn’t yet come to pass. Therefore you can continue to say “Oh, I’m still right, it just hasn’t yet happened.”

Well a continuation of this idea is to say something has certain characteristics, while being able to continue to argue that she or he is correct even though the thing hasn’t displayed those given characteristics, yet. In Taleb’s case, this comes to pass in his determination of some systems as fragile even though they haven’t yet collapsed. And one cannot argue with him because he can simply say that they haven’t done so, yet.

It would be nice to see Taleb at least make acknowledgement of these characterizations. Since they are so similar to an idea which his previous writing didn’t seem to cast in such a wonderful light.


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