Confidence, idea generation and failure

New idea generation is riddled with failure. And it has to be this way. Not from our choice, but simply because of how the world works:

Ideas have to be thought of in terms of risk and reward. If an idea has many great attributes and is not risky than it will be very likely that someone has already identified this and tried it. And so that leaves only the risky ideas that also have many great attributes.

This logic leads one to understand that testing in business is of the utmost importance. It means that the only way you will find out if these risky, good ideas will work, is through testing their main components. It therefore increases, exponentially, the importance of testing ideas in the least capital intensive fashion possible.

And if you’re playing in a risky space with high payoffs, it also means many of your ideas will fail. Not because they were bad ideas, but because you could not inherently know that the idea would not work.

And so it also means that you must have to confidence to expect failure, be ready for it and be ready to have the confidence to move immediately forward with your next ideas afterwards.

 

Note: Inspiration from this post was gleaned from the authors of “Black Swan”, “A Drunkards Walk”, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” and “Fooled by Randomness”.

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